Ok, call me “snarky,” but I don’t believe in making predictions. Why? Because A) I’m not Kreskin B) I’m not an HR Wizard C) Most predictions don’t come true. Before you call me the “bah hum bug” of HR, think again. How many times have you read year-end predictions, or recaps and thought, “Yeah, so what?”
While I love reading year-end recaps, and predictions for the coming year, I rarely take stock in them. With that said, a few of my colleagues have stepped up to the plate and offered some tasty tidbits. There’s a great Outsourcing post by The Horses for Sources blog. The Inflexion Advisors Blog and Sharon Lauby also known as The HR Bartender beat me to the punch, and covered the bases I would have written; therefore, why should I try to top what’s already been written? I won’t.
Truthfully, I read blogs more than I read the New York Times. Predictions and year-end recaps are amusing, sometimes enlightening and often educational. However, I posit that perhaps we should set our own goals based on the work we do, and the organizations we represent.
Yes, I’m also very “bah humbug” about new years resolutions. Rather, it is better to strategically analyze our goals for the coming year. Take your organization’s temperature, assess where you are. Consider where you’d like your organization to be, and do the math. Establish base-line metrics so you can evaluate your results and measure outcomes. This is the 101 snap shot of “OD”organization assessments. Isn’t better to establish goals and measure them, rather than spouting frothy predictions? I assert that it is.
If you want to sink your teeth into something meaty, consider my suggestion. Your organization might just learn something useful in the coming year.
Your twitterpal,
@HRMargo
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Thanks for the mention Margo!
I agree organizations need to take a pulse and set attainable but challenging goals. However, it is fun to dig out the crystal ball and speculate on the future.
Margo, I’m with you. I hate the predictions, especially when they are obvious. Economy sucks, celebs will do crazy things, etc. Bored of it all. Interesting approach of doing an OD assessment. Think it’s a challenge we’d all benefit from taking on. Bravo!
This post is spot on! Too often, we get caught up in the hype of making wish lists for the coming year. We share them with friends and family with great enthusiasm, but little else to put those goals into meaningful action.
A better approach is to focus, almost single-mindedly, on one outrageous goal. A goal that you are absolutely on fire about achieving. Birddog that goal until fruition. I guarantee the momentum that you create in your life after achieving that one burning goal will be the fuel for other goals that are wildly important to you.
When I was an associate editor for Employee Benefit News, we always had a December/January article about trends in the new year. We would call a lot of employers and ask them what they were doing with their benefit plans. We got pretty good information where the industry was headed and what we would be writing about in the upcoming year. Predictions based on research and knowledge of an industry are important. They help people prepare for the future.
Thanks, great minds think alike
I appreciate your insight Jill. As a fellow writer, your opinion means the world to me.
Trish, you’ve been with me since the beginning of my blog-and to receive praise from you really means the world to me. Thanks for your comment.
I agree with you. I loved your blogpost, which is why I hot linked it to mine. There are very few predictions posts which have credibility in my eyes. They say, “cream always rises to the top,” and your blog is top drawer. Thanks for stopping by and submitting a comment.
I love reading what other people think is going to going happen. I love reading why other people don’t make predictions! I just don’t make predictions- I am typically wrong.
2010 will unfold in its own way. We will just have to wait and see.
Good thoughts Margo.
That is why I rarely discuss, post or hypothesize on predictions. I just make goals and take small, steady steps to accomplish them!
@BenjaminMcCall
ReThinkHR.org
Great post! Predictions are definitely fun, and even more fun to check back on at the end of the year, but I too stay away from them.
Obviously, it helps HR tremendously if they can predict where their business is going. It surely helps to maintain their strategic importance in the organization, and facilitate change throughout the org, but right now we are all just hoping to hang on to what we have and make it through!
Great stuff, glad we connected!
@cornonthejob
Thanks Rich. Predictions are fun, but doing the back end analysis on assumptions validates our hunches, wouldn’t you agree? Love your blog, I’m glad we’re connected too.
We both have our roots in organization development, so I appreciate your comment. We OD pros are rare in this economy. Due to layoffs and the skyrocketing unemployment rate, many OD professionals have resorted to taking jobs in other HR areas. I look forward to the day that the market supports organization development interventions, so that people like you and I can resume our passion.
Deirdre, you are one of my favorite tweeps. I’m so grateful you allocated your valuable time to visit my blog and comment. Thank you so much for your thoughtful feedback.
I’m going to be eclectic here and say that of course a huge percentage of predictions never come true, look how many time the end of the world has been predicted. There is a whole industry built around survival shelters and apocalyptic paraphernalia…
But, like Jill, I find value in trends and when mathematical and scientific data is properly extrapolated and analyzed I do believe we can learn to prepare wisely for at the very least some things via forecasting.. a robust synonym for the word prediction though the word prediction conjures up guessing not extrapolated data
And finally, like Deirdre pointed out, there is fun to be had with a good guessing game.
I agree with you totally Margo; I’m neither a fan of predictions or recaps. Stats can be reported in such twisted ways depending on what message the author wants to convey. Recaps to me are unnecessary – we should be looking forward, not backwards. But, likewise, so many predictions are totally off the wall. And how do they help anyway? Unless (as Karla says) the data is genuine and properly analysed they offer no insight plus you really ought to know what to expect for YOUR company anyway.
Predictions can be great fun and, while I hold little thought for them, I do read them… Often just so I can laugh at how wrong they are later on!
@wendyjacob
Karla, I agree, it’s fun to read year-end predictions. IMHO, it’s better when there is substantive analysis executed to validate claims. As always, I am grateful you took the time to visit my site. Thank you very much.
Margo- Well Done! I am not a fan of making resolutions or predictions. The disapointment bar is set to high!
I like to reflect on the past year, and make realistic, attainable goals. I think all organizations should do the same. I do like to watch the year end re-plays they do on the Networks, and business channels.
Bravo! I really need to do my next post ASAP!
Your friend-
Shennee
Wendy and Shenee, thanks for visiting my blog. I concur-reading year-end predictions and recaps are fun, but pale when they aren’t back up with data. I’m a fan of fluffy entertainment posts, so long as they aren’t dressed up in “hard research” suits.
Solid advice!
Hi Margo
Thanks for the mention of RCEuro in your previous post and for contributing to our growing group of international contributors on the site.
I can’t count the number of conferences or seminars over the years that I have been asked to comment on ‘the future of…..’ as it relates to recruitment. As you point out, predicting the future is a mug’s game.
However, I will stick my neck out and predict this: your thoughts, musings, passion and contributions to the ongoing debate about HR and Recruitment will be one of the highlights of my year in 2010 (and beyond). Welcome to the world of bloggers and the international stage.
Best regards
Alan
Alan, one of the blessings I count in 2009 is connecting with you, and becoming a blogger on RCEuro. I would one day love to live and work in Europe, and you inspire me.
Amanda, you are one of the most dynamic people I’ve ever met. The fact you think my advice is solid makes my day. You are so special.
Oh how I am so resisting calling you “snarky.” You did dare us…but I won’t.
I will say that I was in a similar position with all the recent predictions popping up in the blogosphere. I thought I should do the same on my blog.
But I don’t have the whereto-all to even know what is going to happen 10 minutes from now, let alone what’s going to happen ten months from now.
I am a numbers person too. I like what you said about goals & measures. I think do the math, take your best shot & hope for the best.
As far as posting my predictions on my blog, I decided to go with a wish list. I will unleash it later this week. If it stays as is, I may be the one called “snarky.”
Say it loud, “I’m snarky and proud.” Pasmuz, you and I think alike. We are both metrics driven people from the “show me” state. I want to see the data. My “Jerry McGuire” slogan would be, “show me the research.”
I can’t wait to read your 2010 wishlist. I’ll be sure to comment, and don’t worry, I won’t be too snarky.